Unseasonably Warm Fall and Upcoming Weather Shifts

This fall has been incredibly warm across the United States, with October standing out as the warmest since 1963. On average, Americans experienced temperatures +3.8°F above normal throughout the month. Last October’s colder weather makes the contrast even more dramatic, with the nation averaging +4.6°F warmer YOY.

October Highlights

Biggest Departure from Climate Normals: Fall Creek, Wisconsin shattered expectations on October 29th, with temperatures climbing to 79°F, a staggering +32°F above normal for late October.
Largest Year-Over-Year Jump: Big Horn County, Montana saw the most dramatic YOY change. On October 26th, temperatures hit 70°F, an incredible +55°F compared to last year, when the high was just 15°F.
Highest Overall Temperature: Calexico, California took the heat crown with a scorching 113°F on October 1st.

November Trends

November is continuing the warm trend, projected to finish +3.2°F above climate normals—not as extreme as October, but still significantly warmer than average. Year-over-year, the temperature increase is slightly lower, at +2.1°F.

Black Friday Week Outlook

Expect a mild trend overall, with temperatures slightly warmer than average (+0.4°F) for much of the country. However, some regions, especially in the Upper Midwest, will see colder-than-last-year conditions, leading to a YOY trend of +3.2°F.

December: A Shift to Chillier Weather

As we move into December, a significant pattern change is brewing. The first week, starting December 2nd, is forecast to bring the coldest week compared to normal or last year since January 2024. YOY temperatures for the country are currently coming in at -8.8°F, driven by the high population centers in the East.

Daily Trend

Looking at daily YOY temperatures for the United States, you can see the stark contrast starting in December, where days start to break below -10°F YOY. Winter is finally making its presence felt across the Eastern half of the United States.